How to plan your first powerlifting meet

Planning your first powerlifting meeting can be overwhelming. Especially if you are not a beast and have to put a bit of thought into it. This article will outline a thought process which will enable you to pick challenging numbers. You will be able to analyze your current results based on data. It is ideally suited for your first meet. Experienced lifters might get some valuable insight on how to pick their attempts based on data. For a quick read look only at the aggregated data and draw your conclusions from there.

Why should you care about a proper plan?

The more detailed your plan is to achieve something, the more likely you will get there. Your first meet has the most potential to go wrong. I did not plan my second and third marathon good enough. I was very disappointed with the results. End of the story is that I am not running anymore. To avoid that you quit lifting early in your career set yourself up for success on your first meet. This article will help you do just that.

Why did I write this article?

This article was written in 2018 as a preparation to take my personal lifting more serious. My total of 500kg at 90kg of bodyweight at that time was decent, but not great. To take it to the next level I needed a better, more detailed plan based on reality. In fact, my total is 8% below the average competitive lifter in my weight class. This is based on the data I pulled. I will outline the data in more detail and the process I used to analyze it. If I was to drop to -74kg, which would be possible based on belly fat, my total would already be 12% above average.

If you have been at one of the meets considered, please feel free to comment. If you have more data to improve the insights, I would be delighted if you send it to pascal@marathon-crossfit.com. Hateful comments will be deleted. For the most experienced lifters among you, I hope you find some surprises. For all the coaches out there, I hope you find some insight to turn your athletes first meeting into a success. For you as an athlete, you are responsible for your own results. Please don't blame me if the insight from the data did not lead to success. That is not the best mindset to be good at anything you do.

The aggregated data

Source: USAPL Lifting Database
Meets: 28
Number of competitors: 1413
Highest Total: 997,5kg

Total Lifts. 12717
Total Fails: 2902

% Lifts failed= 22%

% Squat failed 1st = 12%
% Squat failed 2nd = 17%
% Squat failed 3rd = 32%

% Bench Failed 1st = 11%
% Bench failed 2nd = 24%
% Bench failed 3rd = 59%

% Deadlift failed 1st = 5%
% Deadlift failed 2nd = 12%
% Deadlift failed 3rd = 33%

Average Total: 430kg
Average % of deadlift from total = 42,32%
Average % of squat from total = 35,62%
Average % of bench press from total = 22,06%

Male statistics

120+kg

# Lifters 60
Biggest Total 935kg
Biggest Squat 332,5kg
Biggest Bench 277,5kg
Biggest Deadlift 357,5kg
Average Total: 632kg
Average Squat from Total: 36,10%
Average Bench press from Total: 24,00%
Average Deadlift from the total: 39,90%

-120kg

#Lifters 78
Highest Total 997,5kg
Biggest Squat 377.5kg
Biggest Bench 305kg
Biggest Deadlift 327,5kg
Average Total: 594kg
Average Squat from Total: 36,29%
Average Bench press from Total: 24,08%
Average Deadlift from the total: 39,63%

-105kg

#Lifters 140
Highest Total 835kg
Biggest Squat 330kg
Biggest Bench 292,5kg
Biggest Deadlift 305kg
Average Total: 575kg
Average Squat from Total: 35,83%
Average Bench press from Total: 23,58%
Average Deadlift from the total: 40,59%

-93kg

#Lifters 178
Highest Total 797,5kg
Biggest Squat 305kg
Biggest Bench 207,5kg
Biggest Deadlift 320kg
Average Total: 541kg
Average Squat from Total: 35,83%
Average Bench press from Total: 23,58%
Average Deadlift from the total: 40,59%

-83kg

# Lifters 173
Highest Total 692,5kg
Biggest Squat 260kg
Biggest Bench 177,5kg
Biggest Deadlift 312,5kg
Average Total: 512kg
Average Squat from Total: 35,15%
Average Bench press from Total: 23,16%
Average Deadlift from the total: 41,69%

-74kg

# Lifters 132
Highest Total 707,5kg
Biggest Squat 275kg
Biggest Bench 165kg
Biggest Deadlift 287,5kg
Average Total: 446kg
Average Squat from Total: 34,95%
Average Bench press from Total: 22,90%
Average Deadlift from the total: 41,69%

-66kg

# Lifters 66
Biggest Total 535kg
Biggest Squat 212,5kg
Biggest Bench 140kg
Biggest Deadlift 227,5kg
Average Total: 428kg
Average Squat from Total: 34,62%
Average Bench press from Total: 22,60%
Average Deadlift from the total: 42,78%

-59kg

# Lifters 23
Biggest Total 497,5kg
Biggest Squat 160kg
Biggest Bench 120kg
Biggest Deadlift 217,5kg
Average Total: 301kg
Average Squat from Total: 34,45%
Average Bench press from Total: 21,97%
Average Deadlift from the total: 43,58%

Female statistics

84+kg

#Lifters 80
Biggest Total 517,5kg
Biggest Squat 215kg
Biggest Bench 127,5kg
Biggest Deadlift 212,5kg
Average Total: 339kg
Average Squat from Total: 36,49%
Average Bench press from Total: 20,29%
Average Deadlift from the total: 43,22%

-84kg

# Lifters 110
Highest Total 525kg
Biggest Squat 230kg
Biggest Bench 155kg
Biggest Deadlift 200kg
Average Total: 313kg
Average Squat from Total: 36,13%
Average Bench press from Total: 19,91%
Average Deadlift from the total: 43,95%

-72kg

# Lifters 140
Biggest Total 455kg
Biggest Squat 197,5kg
Biggest Bench 90kg
Biggest Deadlift 192,5kg
Average Total: 296kg
Average Squat from Total: 36,11%
Average Bench press from Total: 19,87%
Average Deadlift from the total: 44,02%

-63kg

# Lifters 103
Biggest Total 487,5kg
Biggest Squat 185kg
Biggest Bench 100kg
Biggest Deadlift 207,5kg
Average Total: 289kg
Average Squat from Total: 35,66%
Average Bench press from Total: 20,19%
Average Deadlift from the total: 44,16%

-57kg

# Lifters 70
Biggest Total 377,5kg
Biggest Squat 145kg
Biggest Bench 82,5kg
Biggest Deadlift 160kg
Average Total: 281kg
Average Squat from Total: 36,44%
Average Bench press from Total: 20,50%
Average Deadlift from the total: 43,07%

-52kg

# Lifters 43
Biggest Total 410kg
Biggest Squat 162,5kg
Biggest Bench 85kg
Biggest Deadlift 162,5kg
Average Total: 260kg
Average Squat from Total: 35,09%
Average Bench press from Total: 20,02%
Average Deadlift from the total: 44,88%

-47kg

# Lifters 7
Biggest Total 272,5kg
Biggest Squat 107,5kg
Biggest Bench 60kg
Biggest Deadlift 120kg
Average Total: 228kg
Average Squat from Total: 35,42%
Average Bench press from Total: 20,09%
Average Deadlift from the total: 44,50%

The base data

The data was pulled from the USAPL Lifting Database. The meets considered took place in the Winter/Spring 2017/2018. In total there were 28 meets considered. In these 28 meets, there were a total of 1413 competitors which made it into the analyses. There were 12717 lifts in total which went in. All of the numbers you see in this article are calculations based on this data.

The meetings considered have been performed to the USAPL Raw lifting standards as this is a standard which I strive to compete in. These standards are defined as

USA Powerlifting Raw/Unequipped Standards

Raw/Unequipped lifting is defined in USA Powerlifting competition as using only the following gear and accessories as previously described above:
(a) Non-supportive singlet
(b) T-shirt
(c) Briefs
(d) Socks
(e) Belt
(f) Shoes
(g) Wrist wraps
(h) Single-ply neoprene knee sleeves without attaching and/or tightening mechanisms like Velcro, clips, or straps
Therefore take these numbers as most specific to your needs if you want to compete under these rules. If you want to use the data for other competitions compare the standards. The less overlap the standards have, the less applicable the data becomes.

Here is the full list of the meetings which went into the analyses:

Based on this, the data has several flaws. The first is that there are only Americans considered. If you want to compete at an international level consider pulling data from international meets. There are also quite a few junior competitions in the data pool. If you want the data to be more relevant to adults, only pull meets with data about adults in them. The third thing is that the winter season is often off-season for the best powerlifters. You can improve the data further by picking meetings in autumn. I selected these meetings as they were the most up to date, easy access results I could find in Q1 2018. I picked them chronologically until I had more than 10.000 lifts.

The number of 1413 lifters means that they were 1413 lifters with valid data. I cleaned up about 100 entries where the data was false. There were some entries which went in the 1000kg range just for one lift. That was clearly a data error either on the day of entry or when I processed the lifts. 1413 lifters mean that there were 1413 competitors. It does not necessarily mean that 1413 individuals competed. If I personally drove to Louisana State Meet, then to the Virginia Winter Open and competed in both, I would be counted as 2 towards the total.

For the 12717 lifts, I counted the total number of lifts. This means that failed attempts go into this number. Also, the lifts of competitors who did not establish a powerlifting total are counted towards that number. For the averages, I have only counted individuals who managed to establish a total.

The process

The data was extracted from the website as source via M-Language. I then used common excel formulas like subtotal, max, count and average to aggregate the data. You can find the instructions I followed in this data analyses series. The complete Excel including the forms and code I used is available as a download at the beginning of this post. It did not use more complex statistical analyses to clean up the data. If you have any questions, corrections or improvement, please contact me in person.

What is a good first meet?

If you ask 1000 lifters you will get 2000 answers to this question. Maybe even more. The best outcome is that you win. The worst outcome is that you do not qualify to place because you do not establish a total. You could have saved the travel cost and the 3 - 9 months preparation time. Establishing a total and placing last is also no fun and can be mentally challenging. So let's pick these scenarios apart. Injury can always occur, so I leave that out of the discussion.

Unless you are a steroid advertisement or face little competition it is unlikely that you will win your very first powerlifting meet. This can be due to nerves, experience or just being unlucky. By picking a meet you can already influence your chances of winning. The higher the participation, the lower the likelihood that you win. The closer you are local to the already established regional/international champions, the lesser the chance of winning. If you are all about winning and trophies you can already stack the deck in your favor by doing some research. Especially for your first meet, you might not want to make it too hard on yourself based on your total.

The data I have aggregated helps you to avoid to fail all of your lifts. It also helps you to pick your numbers right and plan your meeting to be the best you can possibly be. If you take some of the insight in it will help you to

Establish a PR on each lift in the meet
Establish a 9 out of 9 record
Establish a total and have three qualifying lifts
Have an informed guess how likely it will be that you place last

The first three results are already great for your first meet. To avoid the last one also helps. Otherwise, you might regret to have gone into competition too early. If you achieve these goals you can go home and attack the next training cycle. You will also have established some bragging rights over your favorite drink.

How to pick your weight class

Usually, people have a bit of wiggle room between weight classes. This is based on dietary habits, build and age. To prepare optimally you should pick your weight class at the beginning of your training cycle, not on the day of competition. This will influence diet choices up to the day. If you already choose to lose or gain weight, it should give a competitive advantage. Otherwise just maintain the weight you are currently at. The following numbers state the number of competitors for each weight class.

Female:

+ 84kg = 80
-84kg = 106
-72kg = 140
- 63kg = 104
-57kg = 70
- 52kg =43
- 47kg = 8

When you look at these numbers it makes the most sense to drop from -52 to -47kg and out of the -72kg weight class based on your total. There is also a good case to move up from -84 to +84 as diet becomes less relevant. If you want to build a legacy as "the greatest of all time" you are also more likely to succeed in the top or bottom weight class. This is due to the fact, that this is as far far away from the medianas possible. You will face less competition overall in your career and a lower risk of a new kid entering your domain to snatch the title from you.

Male:

+120kg = 60
-120kg= 78
-105kg= 140
-93kg= 178
-83kg= 173
-74kg= 140
-66kg= 66
-59kg = 24

The most beneficial weight class changes based on these numbers are from -74kg to -66kg, from -66kg to -59kg and from -105kg to -120kg. If you are stuck in the middle like me look at your total and your belly to make a decision. If you have a great total, but a big belly, get rid of the belly. If you have no belly and a measly total, go on a bulk. If you are in the -120kg and consider to drop down a level, maybe hold your horses. You are almost doubling the competition and have to go on a diet. This makes only sense if you are within reach of a world record in -105kg but not in -120kg. As with women, you have the best chances of building a legacy as "greatest of all time" in the highest or lowest weight class. Go for world records in your best years in the middle as there is more competition over the years.

How to pick your total

This can highly vary per individual. I hope that these numbers provide you with a bit more clarity and guidance for the first time. The more you compete, the more you will know what is best for you. Picking a total to train towards will help to plan the cycle up until the meet. This will minimize the guesswork and maximize the impact of your sessions.

Below I have highlighted the average total based on my calculations for each weight class. This means if you establish this total you are right in the middle of this weight class. As we have some meetings with pretty low totals in the mix, I would add 5% for good measure. If you pick a local meet and hit this number +20% I am fairly confident you won't place last. Depending on the day, you might even make it on the podium.

Example:

I have currently a total of 500kg at 90kg bodyweight
If I am honest with myself I can lose 7kg of belly fat for a competition
This would put me in the -83kg weight class
To be an average competitor I would have to increase my total by 12kg which is doable
To be above average I would need to increase my total by 37kg which is challenging
To win for sure I would have to increase my total by 200kg for this data sample

Here you can see how realistic goal setting comes into play. There is no way that I will increase my total by 200kg in the next two years unless I get bionic arms and legs. Within ten years is a different game.

Male statistics

120+kg
# Lifters 60
Average Total: 632kg

-120kg
#Lifters 78
Average Total: 594kg

-105kg
#Lifters 140
Average Total: 575kg

-93kg
#Lifters 178
Average Total: 541kg

-83kg
# Lifters 173
Average Total: 512kg

-74kg
# Lifters 132
Average Total: 446kg

-66kg
# Lifters 66
Average Total: 428kg

-59kg
# Lifters 23
Average Total: 301kg

Female statistics

84+kg
#Lifters 80
Average Total: 339kg

-84kg
# Lifters 110
Average Total: 313kg

-72kg
# Lifters 140
Average Total: 296kg

-63kg
# Lifters 103
Average Total: 289kg

-57kg
# Lifters 70
Average Total: 281kg

-52kg
# Lifters 43
Average Total: 260kg

-47kg
# Lifters 7
Average Total: 228kg

How to steer your training

This goes into specificity which is a bottomless pit. Based on the averages over these 12000 lifts however you can have a better estimate on where to put your focus in your training.

The heavier you are the more likely it will become that the squat and the deadlift will have equal impact on your total. The lighter you are the more likely it will become that the deadlift has the biggest impact on your total. At least this holds true for males based on this data set. In all cases, the bench press has the smallest impact on your total.

This was one of the main reasons why I ran the numbers. I wanted to know a bit more precisely where I can spend my time wisely in training. As a rule of thumb, you can say that 40% of your total come from your squat, 40% from your deadlift and 20% from your bench press. Let us look into my numbers to see how I can steer my training.

Example

My current total is 500kg
Squat max sits at 170kg 34%
Bench max sits at 140kg 28%
Deadlift max is 190kg 38%

Based on my weight class my bench press overperforms in correlation to the contribution to my total compared to the deadlift and squat. This is exactly the result you do not want as a powerlifter. Preferably your best lift is your deadlift or squat and not the bench press.

This is what it actually should look like given the averages of my weight class and assuming the same total

Total 500kg
Squat 175kg
Bench press 115kg
Deadlift 200kg

This is some useful insight for my training as I can now say that my bench press is definitely overdeveloped compared to the field. This does not give me leverage for my total but can save valuable time in the week. I can maintain my bench press and use the saved time to push the squat forward. If I maintain the level of my bench press and develop my deadlift and squat further I can set goals like this:

Total 600kg
Squat 215kg
Bench 145kg
Deadlift 240kg

For long-term training this is important. This means my bench press stays the same while my squat and deadlift ramp up to re-establish a distribution of 35%, 25%, 40%. I need a lot less benching than other powerlifters might need in their training. As 600kg is a bit of a leap lets try this instead:

Total 550kg
Squat 192,5kg
Bench 137,5kg
Deadlift 220kg

This is a goal set which allows me to even get slightly worse on the bench press while still increasing my total. If I was an Elite lifter I could even say I only bench only once every three weeks based on this. It does not completely work for Intermediate lifters as they need more sessions to get the same kind of stimulus. I hope these few examples helped you. My conclusion is that I will swap the bench press for the bend over row for one 90 day cycle and see where my total stands then. Every two weeks I might grease the groove with a 3x2 at 85% for the bench press.

A side note to coaches. This is what happens when you leave teenage boys without a plan in the gym. They will bench press mostly and avoid the squat like the plague. I mainly attribute my teenage years in the gym to this comparatively overdeveloped bench press. I have also discussed this in the article "Why is the bench press so popular". For strength development programs for young athletes I highly recommend that it is supervised and balanced. Teenagers tend to overdo the exercises they are good at and therefore reinforce the weaknesses they already have.

So for me, this means when I combine the average total statistics with the distribution that I should strive for

Total 550kg
Squat 192,5kg
Bench 137,5kg
Deadlift 220kg

To put it in easy terms, my upper body is strong. Maintain the status quo. My legs are weak, build them up with hypertrophy.

Male statistics

120+kg
# Lifters 60
Average Squat from Total: 36,10%
Average Bench press from Total: 24,00%
Average Deadlift from the total: 39,90%

-120kg
#Lifters 78
Average Squat from Total: 36,29%
Average Bench press from Total: 24,08%
Average Deadlift from the total: 39,63%

-105kg
#Lifters 140
Average Squat from Total: 35,83%
Average Bench press from Total: 23,58%
Average Deadlift from the total: 40,59%

-93kg
#Lifters 178
Average Squat from Total: 35,83%
Average Bench press from Total: 23,58%
Average Deadlift from the total: 40,59%

-83kg
# Lifters 173
Average Squat from Total: 35,15%
Average Bench press from Total: 23,16%
Average Deadlift from the total: 41,69%

-74kg
# Lifters 132
Average Squat from Total: 34,95%
Average Bench press from Total: 22,90%
Average Deadlift from the total: 41,69%

-66kg
# Lifters 66
Average Squat from Total: 34,62%
Average Bench press from Total: 22,60%
Average Deadlift from the total: 42,78%

-59kg
# Lifters 23
Average Squat from Total: 34,45%
Average Bench press from Total: 21,97%
Average Deadlift from the total: 43,58%

Female statistics

84+kg
#Lifters 80
Average Squat from Total: 36,49%
Average Bench press from Total: 20,29%
Average Deadlift from the total: 43,22%

-84kg
# Lifters 110
Average Squat from Total: 36,13%
Average Bench press from Total: 19,91%
Average Deadlift from the total: 43,95%

-72kg
# Lifters 140
Average Squat from Total: 36,11%
Average Bench press from Total: 19,87%
Average Deadlift from the total: 44,02%

-63kg
# Lifters 103
Average Squat from Total: 35,66%
Average Bench press from Total: 20,19%
Average Deadlift from the total: 44,16%

-57kg
# Lifters 70
Average Squat from Total: 36,44%
Average Bench press from Total: 20,50%
Average Deadlift from the total: 43,07%

-52kg
# Lifters 43
Average Squat from Total: 35,09%
Average Bench press from Total: 20,02%
Average Deadlift from the total: 44,88%

-47kg
# Lifters 7
Average Squat from Total: 35,42%
Average Bench press from Total: 20,09%
Average Deadlift from the total: 44,50%

How to pick your attempts

Now you have a better idea of how to pick your total and assess your strength and weaknesses on a statistical basis. This can be used as a guide with your coach to pick the right training for you. Again the next bit completely depends on the lifter and how you feel on the day. Also, the better you become, the more your attempt might be picked based on making the podium or not.

The good news for your first meet is that every attempt that goes on the board will be a meeting PR. So don't beat yourself up too much if you have a bad day. The general advice is to pick your opener in a way that it is a lift you can easily do for a triple in the gym. You want to make sure that you get a total.

The second attempts should be near towards your estimated best. For the third attempts, you can decide whether you want to lift a weight you never did before or something that you know you did on a good day. I would lean to being conservative and strive for 9 out of 9 while still challenging yourself.

Based on the numbers you are most likely to fail on the bench press and least likely to fail on the deadlift. For the bench press, it makes sense to practice with commands 2 - 4 weeks before the meet. This is the only lift where the commands are given in the middle of the lift under load. They have the biggest potential to throw you off. For the deadlift, you can be a bit more aggressive about your opener. Only 5% of 1st attempts on the deadlift are missed. Be a bit more aggressive and put yourself ahead of another competitor.

To put that to a practical example of the total I have defined for my first meet:

Total 550kg
Squat 192,5kg
Bench 137,5kg
Deadlift 220kg

For the squat, I would have to aim for a 180kgx3 without a belt in training. This puts me at a calculated one repetition maximum of 195kg. With a belt and sleeves, you can squeeze out maybe 5 - 15kg on competition day. So I would pick my attempts like this:

Squat 1st: 180kg
Squat 2nd: 192,5kg
Squat 3rd: 200kg

For the bench press, I would aim for 130x3 in training without a belt and wrist wraps. That puts me at a comfortable 140kg max which I also have done before. With a belt and wrist wraps you have 5 - 10kg wiggle room upwards. For the meeting, I would pick my numbers like this

Bench 1st: 130kg
Bench 2nd: 137,5kg
Bench 3rd: 140kg

For the deadlift, I would aim for 205x3 in training without a belt. That puts me at a calculated max of 220kg. Again same logic applied that a belt will give me another 5 - 15kg on the day. Based on this the attempts would be picked like this:

Deadlift 1st: 205kg
Deadlift 2nd: 220kg
Deadlift 3rd: 230kg

This would leave me with the following numbers for the meet:

Worst outcome: 0kg total
1st attempts made: 515kg
2nd attempts made: 550kg
3rd attempts made: 570kg

570kg would be a great first meet for me. I also think with 515kg I would be slightly above average and not place last. I hope these considerations help you to start your planning for your first meet. Attached you will find the numbers on which lifts were failed the most.

% Lifts failed= 22%
% Squat failed 1st = 12%
% Squat failed 2nd = 17%
% Squat failed 3rd = 32%

% Bench Failed 1st = 11%
% Bench failed 2nd = 24%
% Bench failed 3rd = 59%

% Deadlift failed 1st = 5%
% Deadlift failed 2nd = 12%
% Deadlift failed 3rd = 33%

Which program to use to get there

This is a very complex question which will vary by individual. At this level, I think it will take me another year to two on the juggernaut method to get there. Jim Wendler 531 could get me there in half or a third of the time with a lot higher injury risk. Programs with linear progression for the main three lifts are out of the question at my stage. Î use those on supporting lifts like the front squat or deficit deadlift.

It depends on you and how you used to train. If you are naturally very strong and just started out with lifting, good for you. Try to get the number you want for your meet with linear progression and do not bother with more complex stuff. If you are an intermediate lifter it is different. Be aware that some programs let you progress monthly and others quarterly in the intermediate range. Pick a program that escalates more quickly if you have not plateaued on them yet. Pick a program that escalates slower, if you are an advanced intermediate or prone to injury.

A peaking cycle can help, but I think is overkill at this stage. If you are in it to win it you will definitely program a peaking cycle. If you want to establish a good first meet in which you post PRs and place above average you might not have to go through a peak cycle. I will see once I hit the training numbers how far out the next meet is in my area. If I have three months for a proper peaking cycle I will do one. If not, I will continue training like I would without the meet and have a rest week beforehand.

Conclusion

What I learned from this exercise for me personally

My bench press is decent, perfect technique for your first meet
My bottleneck is not my back, but my legs, adjust your programming accordingly with a hypertrophy leg day
For the -83kg weight class a 512kg total is average
I should aim for 180kgx3, 130kgx3, 205kgx3 in training and look for a meet then

This gives my training more purposes and clearer goals than just 2.5 times bodyweight. It will also help me to use any kind of calculators I will purchase more effectively as teh ones from Juggernaut Strength. If you have any questions let me know. If you are a competitive powerlifter and think I have overlooked something vital please let me know and I will add your feedback.